Like the World Bank, the IMF forecasts an exit from recession for sub-Saharan Africa this year. However, only 4 countries in the region will register growth greater than or equal to 6%. These are Botswana, Seychelles, Burkina Faso and Côte d'Ivoire.
Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to register 3.7% economic growth in 2021, according to the new World Economic Outlook report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Bretton Woods institution made its forecasts public, a few days after those of the World Bank, which also forecasts an economic recovery, after the recession of 2020. Across the continent, this growth will not be evenly distributed.
Thus, according to the IMF, only four countries will register a growth greater than or equal to 6%. Among them, only Botswana will register growth at 9.2%, the strongest on the continent, which will probably be driven by the resumption of economic activity in the mining sector, in which the country is a major player.
It will be followed by Seychelles (6.9%), Burkina Faso (6.7%) and Côte d’Ivoire (6%). Although these prospects appear to be closer to those of the World Bank, which forecast a recovery of 3.3% in growth in the region, some differences remain.
Thus, while the World Bank expects growth at 0.4% for Angola, the IMF estimates that the southern African country will not be able to come out of recession this year, and should post negative growth at -0. , 7%. Prospects that are not unrelated to the country’s difficulty in weaning itself from dependence on oil, against a backdrop of over-indebtedness, while legislative and presidential elections are scheduled for next year.
In total, the IMF indicates that in addition to Angola, the Central African Republic and the Republic of Congo will experience negative economic growth at -1% and -0.2% respectively. On the other hand, the two largest economies in the region, Nigeria and South Africa, are expected to return to positive growth, marking the end of an economic crisis that has plunged them into recession.
According to the IMF, the West African giant is expected to see its economy grow 2.6% while South Africa will grow by 5%. It should be noted, however, that all these prospects remain subject to a successful fight against the covid-19 pandemic, in particular thanks to a successful vaccination campaign. For 2022, the IMF estimates that growth in sub-Saharan Africa should reach 3.8%.